Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have been aggressively buying Indian stocks. FIIs were net buyers of Indian equities worth Rs 25,231 crore in the month of November, recording the highest monthly inflow since March this year. FIIs have been buyers in 15 of 21 sessions in November. They invested a net of Rs 12,368 crore in October.
The benchmark indices also scaled fresh all-time highs in the previous week following sustained inflows by foreign institutional investors. The foreign investors bought equities worth Rs 7,683 crore during that week.
However, the inflows have dramatically declined in the second half of the year due to muted Q2, slowdown in consumer demand, and falling growth. Since July 2019, the FIIs have bought equities worth Rs 15,136 crore. In the first six months (January-June), this figure stood at Rs 78,648 crore.
The inflows, however, did not kick start on a strong note this year. FIIs were net sellers in Indian equities worth Rs 4,262 crore in January. The pace of foreign money inflows started picking from February and, over the following five months, FIIs invested Rs 82,910 crore.
Post-June the FIIs turned net sellers again for the subsequent two months, selling Rs 12,419 crore and Rs 17,592 crore in July and August, respectively. A host of events dented foreign investors’ confidence during those months in India including an increase in the tax on super-rich or foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) in the July 2019 Union Budget, poor to mixed corporate earnings in recent quarters, overhang on economic growth locally, and the US-China trade war.
According to Naveen Kulkarni of Reliance Securities, FII sentiment is turning around and should continue to improve over the next six months as operating performance is likely to gain further traction.
For the inflows to continue, analysts now expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut interest rates for a sixth successive time in its December 5 monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting despite a surprise spike in inflation to curb the slowing growth.
The September quarter GDP growth has slowed to 4.5 percent, its weakest pace since 2013, despite a cumulative 135 basis point cut in policy rates this year.