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    CLSA maintains ‘buy’ rating on Tata Motors. Here's why

    CLSA maintains ‘buy’ rating on Tata Motors. Here's why

    CLSA maintains ‘buy’ rating on Tata Motors. Here's why
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    By CNBCTV18.com  IST (Updated)

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    According to the brokerage firm, volume recovery and cost cuts should continue to drive free cash flow and deleveraging.

    Brokerage firm CLSA maintained a ‘buy’ rating on Tata Motors with a target price of Rs 425. Its positive view on the stock continued on the bank of strong free cash flow and deleveraging, CLSA said.
    According to the brokerage firm, volume recovery and cost cuts should continue to drive free cash flow and deleveraging.
    "JLR’s Ebit margin should improve from 0% in FY20 to 6% in FY23, while its India Ebitda margin should recover from 1% to 8%. We forecast FY21-23 FCF of £1.8 bn for JLR and Rs 84 bn in India," said CLSA in its note. This, it added,  should lead to auto net debt declining from Rs 487 billion in FY20 to Rs 276 billion by FY23CL.
    The brokerage estimates Jaguar Land Rover’s (JLR) overall retail sales declined 9 percent YoY in Feb 2021.
    "JLR does not report regular monthly volumes but our calculation is based on a collation of country-level disclosures, which broadly account for 80-85 percent of JLR’s overall volume," it said.
    The note added that though China saw a strong recovery in January-February (partly due to a COVID-19 impacted base), North America, the UK and the European Union remained weak.
    JLR’s China volume likely grew eight times YoY due to a very low base from February 2020, due to COVID-19. January and February 2021 cumulative volume grew 113 percent YoY.
    “China volume grew 28 percent if we consider the base of January and February 2019. North America retail sales declined 36 percent YoY in February 2021 as the market as well as JLR lost selling days due to severe weather conditions. UK and EU (ex-UK) sales declined 26 percent and 31 percent YoY, respectively, in February 2021, most likely due to the prevailing lockdown,” stated the report.
    Globally, Land Rover continues to outperform versus Jaguar, said the brokerage.
    JLR’s China retail growth for January and February 2021 outperformed BMW, Mercedes, Audi. In the UK, JLR performed in line with peers but Land Rover outperformed. In the EU (ex-UK), JLR’s volume declined 32 percent YoY during January and February compared to a 12 percent-23 percent decline by peers.
    In the US, JLR’s volume declined 24 percent YoY during January and February compared to a '+16 percent' to '–16 percent' YoY performance by peers.
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