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market | IST

Here's how experts expect bond yields to perform in 2020

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Experts said that it was possible that as we enter into the first quarter (Q1) of the next financial year, the bond market may start heading back towards 7 percent in terms of yields as the new borrowing programme dawn upon us and the new set of auctions start coming into the market.

It’s not just a new year but a new decade that’s on the anvil. Experts said that it was possible that as we enter into the first quarter (Q1) of the next financial year, the bond market may start heading back towards 7 percent in terms of yields as the new borrowing programme dawn upon us and the new set of auctions start coming into the market.
“The immediate reaction of ‘Operation Twist’ (to conduct a simultaneous sale and purchase of bonds by the RBI to bring down long-term yields) has been that the yields have come off by about 15 bps on the back of the expectation that it is not a one-off auction;  RBI will do a lot more,” said Neeraj Gambhir, president, head treasury & markets at Axis Bank, at a discussion held by CNBC-TV18 .
Gambhir said that the market was talking about Rs 50,000 crore over the next couple of months, but the reality was that this was just a short-lived reprieve, as the market gets to understand the budget math and next year’s borrowing programme which can look pretty significant in terms of size.
Ananth Narayan, professor at SP Jain Institute of Management and Research, said that there were some positives for bond markets in the short-run.
“RBI doing this twist is a definite positive. Governor (Das reiterating that he wants the fiscal and monetary policy to act in concert is very reassuring and it’s already in play also the talk about bond index inclusion which is a long-term affair nevertheless will provide support at various points in time,” Narayan added.
“The problem though is we are in a midst of a large fiscal and monetary experiment. Our fiscal deficit is already far higher than is acknowledged and looks like getting even worse given tax collections and a lot of that fiscal expansion and borrowing by central, state and public sector enterprises has been monetized by the central bank already given large amount of open market operations (OMOs) done last year and the large surplus transfers done by the RBI to the government last year as well,” added Narayan.
According to him, the net household financial savings has dropped significantly and was below the government borrowing at this point in time.
Santosh Kamath of Franklin Templeton said that he was not sure how ‘Operation Twist’ will help transmission to a lower-rated company.
“The key thing is to find out what is the reason for transmission not happening on a single A or BB and I think the median rating for all India bank book is BB. So if you actually need the transmission to happen you need to give comfort that things are okay there,” said Kamath.
Former RBI deputy governor HR Khan said that corporate debt market faced structural and technical issues.