Monsoon takes a ‘break’ again, Skymet says 60% chance of ‘below normal’ rain this year

Skymet Weather Services Pvt. ltd has updated its monsoon 2021 forecast and said there is a 60 percent chance of ‘below normal’ rainfall during monsoon at 94 percent of the long-period average (LPA) with an error margin of (+/-) 4 percent.

According to the private weather forecast company, the onset of the southwest monsoon was on time this year and the country recorded above normal rainfall at 110 percent of the LPA in June. However, in July, there was a prolonged break and the month finished with below-normal rainfall at 93 percent of LPA.

Skymet had predicted 106 percent of LPA for June and 97 percent of LPA for July.

Additionally, the monsoon break continued in the first half of August as well. Skymet has said that the ‘break monsoon’ phase in the first fortnight of August led to a 9 percent monsoon deficit till the middle of the month. The weather analytics firm went on to add that the below normal status of monsoon has not improved till now.

The report, however, adds that the food production in the central parts of the country won't be impacted as the 'spatial distribution of rainfall' over Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh has been adequate. In contrast, Gujarat, West Rajasthan, and some pockets in Odisha may witness a drought-like condition.

Earlier, in April, Skymet had forecast a ‘normal’ or ’above normal’ monsoon this year, like the last two years (2020 and 2019). It predicted monsoon rain from June to September to be 103 percent of the long period average of 880.6 mm.

According to the India Meteorological Department, 96 percent to 104 percent of LPA is ‘normal’, 90 percent to 96 percent is ‘below normal’, and less than 90 percent is ‘deficient’.