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Third wave won't be as deadly, 79% adults in urban India exposed to COVID: WHO-AIIMS sero survey

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Vaccination can reduce hospitalisation chances by 74-80 percent even as 67 percent (two-thirds) of 18+ people in the whole of India have been exposed to Sars Cov-2 (Covid-19), according to the survey.

Third wave won't be as deadly, 79% adults in urban India exposed to COVID: WHO-AIIMS sero survey
The recent national seropositivity (serological) survey conducted jointly by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) says that 79 percent of adults in urban India have been exposed to COVID-19.
Urban India is already herd-immunised while the whole of India (urban and rural) is on the verge of attaining herd immunity with the seropositivity rate of 67 percent (should be between 70 to 80 percent, as is the standard practice).
Vaccination can reduce hospitalisation chances by 74-80 percent even as 67 percent (two-thirds) of 18+ people in the whole of India have been exposed to Sars Cov-2 (Covid-19), according to the survey.
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The survey also shows that 59 percent of youngsters below 18 years have been exposed to COVID-19. The seropositivity is as high as 79 percent in 18+ adults in urban India and 78 percent in youngsters below 18 in urban India.
During a union health ministry briefing held on June 18, NITI Aayog member Dr VK Paul said the WHO-AIIMS survey shows that seropositivity in individuals below and above 18 years of age is almost equal, reported ANI. The seropositivity report also shows that the third wave wouldn't be as deadly as the first two, said Dr Paul.
In rural areas, the seropositivity rate is 56 percent in persons below 18 years of age and 63 percent in persons above 18, says the WHO-AIIMS seropositivity survey.
Dr. Paul added that the possibility of fully vaccinated persons needing oxygen support is around eight percent and the risk of ICU admission herein is only six percent. The SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity rate in youngsters (2-17 years) is comparable to that in adults, says the interim findings of a serological survey.
The survey concluded that it is unlikely that any future third wave by prevailing COVID-19 variant would disproportionately affect children two years or older.
The study is part of an ongoing large multi-centric population-based seroepidemiological study conducted by AIIMS under the WHO. The study is being conducted in five selected states with a proposed total sample size of 10,000. The AIIMS team had data of 4,500 participants at the time of midterm analysis from four states of India.
India reported 60,753 Daily New Cases in the last 24 hours as of June 18, said the union ministry of health and family welfare. Total recoveries across the country so far were 2,86,78,390 with 97,743 patients recovered during the last 24 hours (as of June 18).
Daily recoveries continued to outnumber the daily new cases for the 37th consecutive day. The recovery rate increased to 96.16 percent. The weekly positivity rate remained below 5 percent, currently at 3.58 percent. Under nationwide vaccination drive, 27.23 crore (272.3 million) vaccine doses have been administered so far as of June 18.

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