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    The rise of COVID-19 in India: Confirmed cases doubling in 3 days

    The rise of COVID-19 in India: Confirmed cases doubling in 3 days

    The rise of COVID-19 in India: Confirmed cases doubling in 3 days
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    By Archana Shukla   IST (Updated)

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    When compared to other affected countries, China has flattened the spread curve of the disease and is now taking 42 days for the numbers to double.

    India has seen the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases rise the fastest in the last five days from 151 as of March 18 to 606 as of 7pm March 25. This is the period when partial lockdowns had started and testing of samples picked up pace.
    It took over a month for India to reach 100 confirmed coronavirus positive cases, but just five days post that to cross the 200 patients. Since then the number of cases are growing by almost 100 every two days.
    The growth rate of confirmed cases has doubled in the last five days. As of March 25, confirmed cases were doubling in three days, compared to six days as of March 20.
    When compared to other affected countries, China has flattened the spread curve of the disease and is now taking 42 days for the numbers to double. However, as the virus spread to the Western world, countries like Italy, Spain, Germany and US continue to see numbers double in three to five days.
    After aggressive intervention, South Korea and Iran have managed to reduce the number of fresh cases. Although numbers from worst-affected countries may not be comparable in actual figures, the rate of news additions gives us a fair indications of how fast the disease is spreading.
    The Indian government with its nationwide lockdown is ensuring social distancing and is making efforts on expanding testing to slow down the growth rate of fresh cases.
    LocationHow long did it take for the number of total confirmed cases to double?Total confirmed cases
    World7 days378,041
    China42 days81,748
    Italy6 days63,927
    United States3 days46,442
    Spain5 days33,089
    Germany4 days24,774
    Iran10 days21,638
    India3 days492
    South Korea22 days9037
    According to an Indian Council of Medical Research calculation of COVID-19 infections in India, “Strictly implemented social distancing measures such as home quarantine of symptomatic and suspected cases will reduce the overall expected number of cases by 62%.”
    State-wise comparison
    Maharashtra and Kerala are the two states with the highest COVID-19 positive cases. Both states have crossed the 100-confirmed cases mark and together account for more than 37 percent of the country’s total number of confirmed cases.
    Kerala has reported 109 confirmed cases as of 7pm of March 25.
    Maharashtra has particularly seen the fastest addition in the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. With 125 patients, the state has the highest confirmed cases in the country.
    Mumbai accounts for almost half of the confirmed cases. A closer look at the shows that the disease is spreading to rural parts of the state as well. Yavatmal and Sangli have reported four positive cases, while Satara has confirmed two. There have been three deaths due to the disease in the state.
    Mumbai MMR67
    Pune MMR31
    Nagpur4
    Ahmednagar3
    Aurangabad1
    Ratnagiri1
    Yavatmal4
    Sangli9
    Satara2
    Total122
    March 25, 7pm
    Karnataka has reported 41 cases, while Gujarat has 38 and Uttar Pradesh has 37. There have been nine COVID-19 deaths and 42 people have recovered from the SARS-Cov2 virus infection.
    State                    Cases
    Maharashtra128
    Kerala109
    Karnataka41
    Gujarat38
    Delhi31
    #As on March 25, 7 PM 
    COVID-19 testing in India
    While the testing of samples of suspected and symptomatic cases is picking up, it is still quite slow. There are 117 government laboratories where on average 2,400-2,500 tests are being performed per day. Around 16 private sector laboratories have received approval in the last two days and with their network of 16,000 collection centres, the number of tests being performed will rise over the next few days. As of March 25, data from government testing centres shows that 2 to 2.2 percent of samples being tested are positive.
    The highest number of tests have been performed in Kerala at 4,516 since January 18. Maharashtra is second-highest with 2,144 samples being tested.
    Cases rise as testing increases
    Date                        Samples Tested                    Confirmed Cases
     
    - Mar 13                        4,950                              81
     
    - Mar 20, 6 PM              15,404                            236
     
    - Mar 21, 6 PM              16,911                            315
     
    - Mar 22, 6 PM              18,127                            396
     
    - Mar 23, 8 PM              20,707                            471
     
    - Mar 24, 10 AM            20,864                            482
     
    - Mar 25, 10 AM            22,928                            562
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