The topline is likely to decline by around 4 percent on back of decline in generation in the quarter. However that would partially be offset because the realisations were higher according to CNBC-TV18 poll.
Margins are expected to improve quite a bit because on a year-on-year basis the coal prices had dipped and that is expected to flow in. Profit are likely to be higher by 4 percent due to other income.
The other important factor for NTPC is the plant availability data and that shows, in the month of January plant availability factor (PAF) was as high as 95 percent compared to a year-to-date (YTD) average of anywhere between 85-90 percent.
This data point is important for NTPC because the PAF directly impacts their under recoveries and higher the PAF means under recoveries will narrow, which in turn means a profitable growth for the company.
The trend of this was very visible in Q3 as well where the PAF had inched up to 88 percent versus 84 percent and that meant that the other income in the quarter gone by would be higher and the under recoveries would be less.