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economy | IST

RBI likely to cut repo rate by 25 basis points on June 6: CNBC-TV18 Poll

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The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to cut repo rate for the third time in a row, bringing it to 5.75 percent from 6 percent currently, according to a CNBC-TV18 poll. Repo rate is the rate at which RBI lends money to banks.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to cut repo rate for the third time in a row, bringing it to 5.75 percent from 6 percent currently, according to a CNBC-TV18 poll.
Repo rate is the rate at which RBI lends money to banks.
70 percent of the economists polled by CNBC-TV18 expect the repo rate to be cut by a quarter of a percentage point, 10 percent expect a 35 basis points cut, 10 percent expect it to be cut by 50 basis points and 10 percent expect a status quo on rates.
One basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point.
For the full financial year 2020, a majority of the respondents expect 50 basis points cut, 10 percent expect the rate to be cut by 100 basis points and the remaining expect it to be cut by 75 basis points. This includes the 25 basis points cut delivered in the April policy this year.
10 economists participated in the poll, which was conducted through calls, emails and interviews. The softening inflation coupled with sagging growth may push the MPC to deliver a cut, respondents told CNBC-TV18.
GDP growth for the January-March quarter of 2019 slowed down to a five-year low of 5.8 percent and unemployment rose to a 45-year high of 6.1 percent, the data released on Friday showed.
Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) edged up in April to 2.92 percent from 2.86 percent in March, but it continues to remain well below RBI’s comfort zone of 4 percent.
On the other hand, uncertainty about oil prices, weak El Nino conditions, the slow transmission of rate cuts by banks so far may hold the MPC’s hands.
On the macro front, 70 percent of the respondents expect the RBI to lower the GDP growth forecast of 7.2 percent for FY20, and the remaining expect it to be left unchanged.
70 percent of the respondents also expect the GDP growth forecast for the first half of FY20 to be lowered from 6.8-7.1 percent accordingly. However, for the second half of FY20, they expect the GDP growth forecast of 7.3-7.4 percent to be left unchanged.
A majority also expects the Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) forecast for the first half of 2.9-3 percent to be left unchanged, and half the respondents expect 3.5-3.8 percent CPI projection for the second half of FY20 to be left unchanged.
However, the economists do not expect RBI to change its stance from 'neutral' to 'accommodative' just yet. The statement of the MPC itself is expected to be far more dovish compared to the last policy, the poll showed.