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economy | IST

Q1FY19 GDP beats estimates, grows at 8.2 percent

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A Reuters Poll, HDFC Bank's research and a CARE Ratings report are expected 7.6 percent GDP growth for the first quarter of current fiscal. 

India's gross domestic product (GDP), for the first quarter ended June 30, 2018 grew at 8.2 percent, fastest in two years. For the first three months of 2018, India reported 7.7 percent annual growth, the fastest in nearly two years.
A CNBC-TV18 poll predicted GDP growth at 7.7 percent.
A Reuters poll, HDFC Bank's research and a CARE Ratings report are expected 7.6 percent GDP growth for the first quarter of current fiscal.
The economic activities which registered growth of over 7 percent in first quarter of 2018-19 over the same period of 2017-18 were manufacturing, electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services, construction and public administration, defence and other services.
Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation said, "Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2018-19 from ‘manufacturing’ sector grew by 13.5 percent as compared to growth of (-) 1.8 percent in Q1 2017-18."
Gross Value Added (GVA) for the given quarter rose by 8 percent as against 5.6 percent in the same quarter of last year.
Manufacturing GVA grew by 13.5 percent versus a negative 1.8 percent in the same period of last fiscal. GVA in construction, financial services, public administration and electricity rose by 8.7 percent, 6.5 percent, 9.9 percent and 7.3 percent, respectively.
The ministry said that Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices stood at Rs 12.75 lakh crore in Q1 of 2018-19 as against Rs 11.20 lakh crore in Q1 of 2017-18. At constant (2011-2012) prices, the GFCF stood at Rs 10.65 lakh crore in Q1 of 2018-19 as against Rs 9.68 lakh crore in Q1 of 2017-18. "In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q1 of 2018-19 are estimated at 28.8 percent and 31.6 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 28.7 percent and 31 percent, respectively in Q1 of 2017-18," it said.
Ashima Goyal, member of Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council PMEAC said, "8 percent gross value added (GVA), 8.2 percent gross domestic product (GDP) is really good, but we must remember that it is on a low base last quarter."
She added, "But (GDP growth rate) still this suggests that the turnaround is there and that there is an intrinsic resilience in the economy because despite zero macro-economic stimulus and external stresses, we are doing well."
Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic advisor of State Bank of India said, "It is a pretty good set of numbers but I am surprised with agricultural growth number as Rabi output indicated 3 percent growth. Possibly the buoyancy in agriculture is because of the allied activities."
He said, "If you calculate the core GVA, which is basically the private sector, that has actually surged to 8.1 percent as against 7.2 percent. So it is a number which is primarily driven by manufacturing because the corporate earnings were very strong."
Former finance minister P Chidambaram, on Twitter, said, "Going forward, the base effect will not be so favourable. And when we reach Q3 and Q4, the rate of growth may decline and the annual growth rate may be more or less like last year's."
In its report, the RBI said economic growth was expected to accelerate to 7.4 percent in the current fiscal year that began in April, from 6.7 percent the previous one, despite risks posed by higher oil prices and global trade tensions.
Private sector lender HDFC Bank, in its research report, said that there are some genuine signs of revival in the economy as the major growth is likely to come from the manufacturing and the service sector. The report said that agricultural growth may also support the GDP growth.