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Economy

India's GDP growth likely to slip below 5 percent in Q2

Updated : November 13, 2019 07:44 AM IST

GDP data for July-September is due on November 29

Recently, Nomura massively cut its GDP forecast to a low 4.9 percent for the year

India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth may not see an uptick in the second quarter of the fiscal year 2020 and may further slip below 5 percent recorded in the first quarter, government sources told CNBC-TV18.

The government will release Q2FY20 GDP data on November 29.

The development comes days after international rating agency Moody's Investor Services and global brokerage Nomura downgraded India's GDP growth forecast, owing to a severe slowdown in the economic activities.

Moreover, India's industrial production shrank by 4.3 percent in September, registering the weakest performance in seven years due to output decline in manufacturing, mining and electricity sectors.

SBI Research on Monday slashed the nation's FY20 growth forecast to 5 percent from 6.1 percent earlier on the back of global economic slowdown coupled by domestic woes.

North Block sources, however, have expressed hope that a pickup will be visible from the third quarter.

On Friday, Japanese brokerage Nomura massively cut its GDP forecast to a low 4.9 percent for the year from 5.7 percent earlier, saying the economy is going through a "deeper trough" and even a sub-par recovery is at least a year away.

While there has been a rash of growth estimate cuts, including a 0.70 percentage points reduction by the RBI last month to 6.1 percent, the Japanese brokerage's estimate is so far the lowest.

The massive reduction in growth forecast comes amid a slide in GDP growth to a six-year low of 5 percent for the June quarter and amid high-frequency indicators showing further stress in the growth engine, which may lead the Q2 GDP printing even lower.

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