GDP Q4FY21: Eye on discrepancy, private consumption reading, say economists

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The gross domestic product (GDP) data for the fourth quarter of FY21 will be released by the statistics ministry on Monday evening. A Reuters report says that economists believe that the country's economic growth is likely to pick up in the January-March quarter from the previous three months, but expressed pessimism too after a harsh second wave of COVID-19 hit the country last month.

The gross domestic product (GDP) data for the fourth quarter of FY21 will be released by the statistics ministry on Monday evening. A Reuters report says that economists believe that the country's economic growth is likely to pick up in the January-March quarter from the previous three months, but expressed pessimism too after a harsh second wave of COVID-19 hit the country last month.
A CNBC-TV18 poll sees the Q4 GDP at 0.9 percent and gross value added (GVA) reading is seen at 3 percent. Aurodeep Nandi, India Economist, Vice President of Nomura Financial Advisory and Kaushik Das, Chief Economist of Deutsche Bank spoke to CNBC-TV18 in detail about their expectations.
Kaushik Das said, “What you should watch out is for - in short, is the discrepancy number. The discrepancy is a line item within GDP, called C+I+G. Now CSO has taken minus 140 percent year-on-year for January-March discrepancy which is itself minus 5.5 percent contribution to growth. So CSO’s calculation is minus 1.1 percent year-on-year to get that minus 8 percent. In order to get that minus 1.1 percent CSO has taken minus 140 percent discrepancy.”
“So we don’t know where the subsidy element that reduction in GDP will be allocated so they have probably put it for the time being in discrepancy, we have to see where they have allocated,” he explained.
Aurodeep Nandi said, "The reason why these numbers are going to be important, is that it gives us a reference point as to how bad it is going to go from which reference point. So, essentially what we will be looking for is how much consumption has improved, has it reached positive territory on a year-on-year growth basis? We also expect continued improvement in private investment, and pickup in government consumption growth."
"In the case of industry and services, some improvement in services should happen, especially for trade, hotel, transport and communication," he added.
For the full interview, watch the accompanying video

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