Business Explainer: Is the US economy nearing a recession? Updated : August 15, 2019 10:18 AM IST Julia Coronado, chief economist at MacroPolicy Perspectives, sees a 40 percent probability of a downturn within the next 12 months, up from 30 percent last month. Those concerns stem in part from the US-China trade war, which appears to have discouraged many businesses from expanding and investing in new buildings and equipment. Subscribe to Moneycontrol PRO at just Rs.33/- per month for the first year. Use code SUPERPRO. Limited period offer. Available on Web and Android.