The survey missed the real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast of 11 percent made for FY22. As per National Statistical Office (NSO), India is likely to grow at around 9.2 percent level this year. The survey also projected 15.4 percent nominal GDP growth, against this the NSO projects 17.6 percent expansion. This could mean that over 8 percent is the implicit inflation in these numbers.
This brings to the inflation commentary made by the survey - it said that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation will soften, which has happened. December CPI is around 5.59 percent levels, but the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) is way higher at over 13 percent in December. Maybe inflation was an important red flag that the survey missed and highlighted.
The survey also spoke about the national infra pipeline in helping economic recovery. However, during the current financial year, we do not know how much of the infra pipeline has been executed.
The survey also batted for a countercyclical fiscal policy to help economic recovery. This has been followed through both the fiscal deficit aim and the debt GDP targets have either been relaxed or done away within the previous budget.
The survey also spoke about making health more agile conjoining Ayushman Bharat with the national health mission, stepping up health spending to around 3 percent of GDP and setting up a health regulator for the private healthcare sector. While the government has given more money to ramp up health insurance, the health spending is less than 1 percent of the GDP and the health regulator is nowhere in sight.
Watch the accompanying video of CNBC-TV18’s Sapna Das to know more about the hits and misses of the Economic Survey for 2020-21.