economy | IST

Analysts react to US-China trade war as Donald Trump threatens more tariffs

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday escalated a growing trade war with China by unveiling new plans to impose 10% tariffs on an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese goods.

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday escalated a growing trade war with China by unveiling new plans to impose 10% tariffs on an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese goods.
The US leader warned that after the new measures are in place - on top of existing 25% tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese imports - tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese goods would go forward if China increases its tariffs yet again.
Here is a summary of what analysts are saying about the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
Gavin Friend, Senior Market Strategist, National Australia Bank
  • On trade war - There are several ways in which Beijing can retaliate US companies operating in China. But Beijing can't apply the same amount of tariffs because the amounts are totally different.
  • US exports to China - America exports goods worth of $150 billion a year, which is very less compared Chinese exports to US.
  • US bonds - Chinese purchases of US debt helps America to keep interest rates at low. So we should not forget American benefits from this buying.
  • Alvin T Tan, Director, Forex Strategy, Societe Generale
    • On trade war - The tariff war between US and China is very fluid. If this goes forward, will will see more risk aversion.
    • On currencies - Emerging market currencies are likely to continue to be under pressure. Yen is likely to continue to outperform. Dollar-Yen has more downside potential not just in the next few days but broader than that we think.
    • Nick Parsons, Head of Research and Strategy, ThomasLloyd
      • On trade war - There are several ways in which Beijing can retaliate US companies operating in China. It could directly target US firms operating in China, make life some more difficult for them. It could take direct actions against the way in which firms operate in the country or under the rules of global trading.
      • On dollar - US dollar is doing very well and can carry on rallying from here against gold until US President Trump sends a tweet from his bedside one morning and says that the dollar has gone far enough, the dollar is expensive.
      • Jeff Chowdhry, LGM Investments
        • On trade wars: US President Trump has already announced the tariff war with his so called friends in the G7. Now, he is it with China as an extension. Every sane person in the world knows that trade wars are not good and they are not beneficial for anyone but President is doing for a different audience, which is basically his support base in America.
        • China is not North Korea - China is not a little puppet regime run by despot. It's the second biggest economy in the world. If President can think he can bully China in the way that he bullies some other countries, I think you have got a bit of a problem. The issue is very simple, the more Trump tries to raise the bar, I do genuinely believe that the Chinese will continue to retaliate and I don't think that they will back down.
        • US Treasuries - China is the biggest buyers of US bond for many years. If they were to stop or to sell, the US bond market has a serious problem.