Automakers in India are all geared up to release November sales data from Saturday onwards. Brokerage firm Nomura estimates that wholesale volume growth will likely be strong on a favourable base and inventory re-build.
The brokerage firm also estimates that for passenger vehicles, Orignal Equipment Manufacturers or OEMs may have to reduce production or raise discounts in SUV and entry car segments going ahead due to weak demand and waiting periods coming down.
"Thus, we expect industry growth to slow down substantially from 25 percent in FY23F to 6 percent in FY24F," said Nomura in a note.
For the month of November, Nomura expects personal vehicle (PV) and medium and heavy commercial vehicles sales by auto companies to see a 33 percent jump as compared to the corresponding period a year ago. Meanwhile, two-wheeler sales are likely to see a 21 percent jump from the sales numbers in November 2021.
In the electric-vehicle (EV) industry two-wheeler sales are supposed to see stable growth with seeing over 75,000 units sold in November, rising 4 percent from the numbers last month. remain stable m-m at 75k+ units in. Ola Electric is expected to again maintain it's first position.
Meanwhile, brokerage firm Emkay Global Financial Services, expects domestic passenger vehicle sales to rise over 30 percent in November as compared to the corresponding period a year ago. The growth is primarily to be driven by a large order book and higher vehicle production.
Commercial vehicle segment sales volume is expected to grow in double digits during the month. Tractors sales are likely to remain muted on inventory destocking with dealers.
Due to the big order book, the PV segment is projected to record greater volumes in November, while the CV and two-wheeler segments are likely to keep up their favourable growth trends, according to Emkay.
The brokerage firm also expects the two-wheeler (2W) segment to grow 10 percent in the month as compared to the corresponding period a year ago, amid indications that urban demand is better than rural and scooters are doing well in comparison to motorcycles.
Here is a look at all estimates
|Company name ||Total sales Emkay Estimates (YoY)||Total sales Nomura Estimates (YoY)|
|Ashok Leyland ||↑41%||↑34%|
|Tata Motors ||↑8%||↑18%|
|Bajaj Auto ||-|| ↓14%|
|Eicher Motors (Royal Enfield)||↑36%||↑36%|
|TVS Motors ||-||↑6.2%|
|Hero MotoCorp ||-||↑14%|